Another calamitous loss of human life gripped Asia’s attention this week, relegating economic matters to secondary notice.
Yet they were also of concern: China’s growth pauses never cease to furrow brows but it is Japan that’s having the more halting time of it. A 60% higher consumption tax has kicked in even as the initial blush of massive stimulus program wears off and some aren’t convinced that the country is out of contraction mode after all.
The retail picture since the April 1 tax hike is muddy. By mid-month, jewelry and other luxury products at department stores were most affected, along with new auto sales, although a Reuters survey found most companies unfazed.
The government shaved back its monthly estimate of the economy, though the Bank of Japan said things are hunky-dory.
This may have made for an interesting discussion between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his chosen BOJ chief Haruhiko Kuroda when they met on Tuesday. Kuroda seems to think he’s juiced the monetary flow enough, for goodness sakes, and Abe was said not to push further.
Could be that other factors than tax are weighing on Japanese as well as foreign consumers and industries–including those in China, Japan’s most sensitive trading partner.
Early spring may bring the cherry blossoms but it has generally been one of those nervous periods in the capital markets, even if stock indexes have resumed climbing for the moment.
The key question for Abe and Japan remains whether and when the “third arrow” in his policy quiver–economic reform, after fiscal and monetary pushes–will get shot. So far it’s been mostly talk, especially about joining a TransPacific Partnership (TPP) in trade-barrier reduction.
That 12-nation negotiation remains stalled. Japan has been doing one-off deals with the likes of Australia as well as outreach to developing economies like Myanmar and India, but those aren’t going to fundamentally alter the protected status of big parts of the Japanese economy.
Of course, this is a tall order. In the aftermath of last decade’s would-be change agent, PM Junichiro Koizumi, writes David Pilling in his new book, Bending Adversity: Japan and the Art of Survival, “There was nostalgia for Koizumi the man and for his Koizumi’s style of leadership, but not many people appeared to miss his policies….[They] were said to have produced a harsher, dog-eat-dog Japan of winners and losers.”
Is the current occupant, who similarly revived the Liberal Democratic Party, likely to fare better, or even really try? In recent days, with a visit from U.S. President Obama looming, Abe has been promising renewed energy toward the gut reforms, as well as better etiquette in expressing the core political nationalism that contrastingly flowers beside his economic multilateralism.
If a TPP pact actually came to fruition–and were extended to South Korea, not yet part of the dozen talkers–some of North Asia’s biggest economic walls could come down and Abenomics could have its best, real shot at transformation.
But as of this week, that buy-in remains too taxing for the prime minister’s domestic constituencies, who are already being nicked three more yen on every 100 at the sales register. As for Abe’s foreign audience, well, some might consider it progress if Japan would just call off the whale hunts.
forbes.com
Yet they were also of concern: China’s growth pauses never cease to furrow brows but it is Japan that’s having the more halting time of it. A 60% higher consumption tax has kicked in even as the initial blush of massive stimulus program wears off and some aren’t convinced that the country is out of contraction mode after all.
The retail picture since the April 1 tax hike is muddy. By mid-month, jewelry and other luxury products at department stores were most affected, along with new auto sales, although a Reuters survey found most companies unfazed.
The government shaved back its monthly estimate of the economy, though the Bank of Japan said things are hunky-dory.
This may have made for an interesting discussion between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his chosen BOJ chief Haruhiko Kuroda when they met on Tuesday. Kuroda seems to think he’s juiced the monetary flow enough, for goodness sakes, and Abe was said not to push further.
Could be that other factors than tax are weighing on Japanese as well as foreign consumers and industries–including those in China, Japan’s most sensitive trading partner.
Early spring may bring the cherry blossoms but it has generally been one of those nervous periods in the capital markets, even if stock indexes have resumed climbing for the moment.
The key question for Abe and Japan remains whether and when the “third arrow” in his policy quiver–economic reform, after fiscal and monetary pushes–will get shot. So far it’s been mostly talk, especially about joining a TransPacific Partnership (TPP) in trade-barrier reduction.
That 12-nation negotiation remains stalled. Japan has been doing one-off deals with the likes of Australia as well as outreach to developing economies like Myanmar and India, but those aren’t going to fundamentally alter the protected status of big parts of the Japanese economy.
Of course, this is a tall order. In the aftermath of last decade’s would-be change agent, PM Junichiro Koizumi, writes David Pilling in his new book, Bending Adversity: Japan and the Art of Survival, “There was nostalgia for Koizumi the man and for his Koizumi’s style of leadership, but not many people appeared to miss his policies….[They] were said to have produced a harsher, dog-eat-dog Japan of winners and losers.”
Is the current occupant, who similarly revived the Liberal Democratic Party, likely to fare better, or even really try? In recent days, with a visit from U.S. President Obama looming, Abe has been promising renewed energy toward the gut reforms, as well as better etiquette in expressing the core political nationalism that contrastingly flowers beside his economic multilateralism.
If a TPP pact actually came to fruition–and were extended to South Korea, not yet part of the dozen talkers–some of North Asia’s biggest economic walls could come down and Abenomics could have its best, real shot at transformation.
But as of this week, that buy-in remains too taxing for the prime minister’s domestic constituencies, who are already being nicked three more yen on every 100 at the sales register. As for Abe’s foreign audience, well, some might consider it progress if Japan would just call off the whale hunts.
forbes.com
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