Wednesday, May 8, 2013

Vladimir Putin can't blame global ills for Russia's economic crunch

MOSCOW: He is one of a few people who can stand up to Vladimir Putin, but even Russia's former finance minister failed to persuade the president his economy's problems lie at home not abroad.


When Alexei Kudrin took Putin to task live on television during the president's annual question-and-answer session and said the economy was tanking because of a poor business climate in Russia, Putin brushed off the criticism - jokingly calling Kudrin a "slacker" for declining a new government job.

The weight of evidence favours Kudrin. Facing protests, and with his popularity recently at a 12-year low, Putin has been trying to deflect the blame for a stagnating economy, which threatens to arrest the rise in living standards that has underpinned his support.

He says a struggling global economy, particularly the euro zone, is to blame for growth falling to just 1.1 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter, down from almost 5 per cent a year earlier.

Blaming other countries for Russia's woes has been a common refrain from Putin since he returned to the presidency a year ago. Kudrin, a liberal who is admired in the West and still has influence, challenged him in front of millions of Russians.

"The main factors of this slowdown remain internal," he said during Putin televised session with the public last month. What Russia really needed, Kudrin said, was deep reform to boost productive investment.

Entrepreneurs also want reassurance over Russia's political future - a veiled reference to middle-class disquiet over Putin's crackdown on political opponents. Boris Titov, an ombudsman whose role is to relay the concerns of business to the Russian government, agrees with Kudrin that "a lot needs to be done".

A detailed breakdown of the figures also supports Kudrin's diagnosis of what ails the $2 trillion Russian economy, as shown in the graphic below.

"The external dimension of this is less important than the domestic one," said Ivan Tchakarov, chief Russia economist at Renaissance Capital. "Investment is much less robust than many people, including myself, had thought."

INVESTMENT SLUMP

Russian businesses have long been reluctant to invest in a country that stifles them with corruption and bureaucracy. "The main problem for entrepreneurs is that they meet corruption everywhere," said Valery Tsaturov, a grocery store owner from outside Moscow, at a recent anti-Putin demonstration.

Tsaturov, dressed as the Grim Reaper with the slogan "korruptsiya" (corruption) written across his cloak, joined the protest after his attempts to build a bigger shop were blocked, he said, by officials demanding bribes.

"The police and prosecutors don't help - that's our authorities, our Putin. As long as he's in power there'll be corruption." When Putin, 60, returned to the Kremlin last year, many analysts had hoped that political stability and promised reforms would boost investor confidence.

indiatimes.com

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