History has often been a cruel mistress to the global economy. With this anecdote in mind then, how have we returned to intense nationalist sparring in Asia after all of the lessons learned from the wars of the past century and beyond?
The recent events surrounding Japan’s territorial dispute with China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands have spurred experts and politicians alike to rush for answers and a magic diplomatic solution that might soothe the historical paralysis.
A measured settlement to these rifts is important but cannot be considered until the genesis of the conflict is more clearly understood.
The most common narrative points to the frustration and anger originating from Japan’s refusal to sufficiently acquiesce to demands that it fully apologize for its actions during World War II. How far should the Japanese go?
This ranges from compensation to concession (when framed around the territorial disputes). The problem here is that the latter has become increasingly opaque as Northeast Asia’s geostrategic landscape continues its metamorphosis.
Power dynamics in the region have changed drastically over the past fifteen years. Japan’s economic stagnancy has contributed to this new era. However the change has been acutely magnified less by Japan’s woes and more by the rise of its regional neighbors.
China’s gross domestic product (GDP) has increased more than six-fold over that period and has since passed every G-7 country with the exception of the United States. Russia experienced an economic renaissance due to the commodity boom and soaring energy prices.
Meanwhile, South Korea’s export driven economy has outpaced the predictions of some financial gurus who once predicted that it would never be able to compete with Japan’s niche markets in automobiles and technology products.
And it is not just an economic story. Beijing has been rapidly enhancing its hard power assets, especially the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), with an aim at restricting Washington’s hegemony in the region.
The Russian “reset” has been a strategic policy failure and Moscow continues to retrench its policies of engaging the West in favor of refurbishing its military and renewing its alliances with corrupt authoritarian regimes.
At the same time, Seoul has been forced to navigate through this delicate geopolitical environment by continued reliance on its US alliance.
When looking at the Senkaku dispute that Japan has with China, it is vital to understand the “strengthened hand” that China now believes that it possesses.
China has indeed reemerged as the dominant strategic power among states in Northeast Asia. Beijing’s primacy in the region has only been challenged thus far by the United States.
Historically, the Japanese have relied on their security alliance with the United States – a partnership which will continue for the foreseeable future.
This relationship however should not induce Japan to have a myopic vision of its geopolitical interests. As China continues to emerge, Japan will need to seek new strategic relationships in the region to balance the notion of a Sino-centric continent.
Through strategic patience and creative statesmanship, Tokyo can tilt this game to its benefit. However, it must first defuse the looming crisis with China over the Senkaku islands through strong bilateral diplomacy that does not rely on US hard power assurances.
This will involve brave decisions by Japanese leaders to resist an excessive response to Chinese provocations. It may be tempting to acquiesce to nationalists in Japan and confront Beijing but this will lead to a strategic nadir between the two and hold the global economy hostage as well. Cooler heads should prevail.
forbes.com
The recent events surrounding Japan’s territorial dispute with China over the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands have spurred experts and politicians alike to rush for answers and a magic diplomatic solution that might soothe the historical paralysis.
A measured settlement to these rifts is important but cannot be considered until the genesis of the conflict is more clearly understood.
The most common narrative points to the frustration and anger originating from Japan’s refusal to sufficiently acquiesce to demands that it fully apologize for its actions during World War II. How far should the Japanese go?
This ranges from compensation to concession (when framed around the territorial disputes). The problem here is that the latter has become increasingly opaque as Northeast Asia’s geostrategic landscape continues its metamorphosis.
Power dynamics in the region have changed drastically over the past fifteen years. Japan’s economic stagnancy has contributed to this new era. However the change has been acutely magnified less by Japan’s woes and more by the rise of its regional neighbors.
China’s gross domestic product (GDP) has increased more than six-fold over that period and has since passed every G-7 country with the exception of the United States. Russia experienced an economic renaissance due to the commodity boom and soaring energy prices.
Meanwhile, South Korea’s export driven economy has outpaced the predictions of some financial gurus who once predicted that it would never be able to compete with Japan’s niche markets in automobiles and technology products.
And it is not just an economic story. Beijing has been rapidly enhancing its hard power assets, especially the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN), with an aim at restricting Washington’s hegemony in the region.
The Russian “reset” has been a strategic policy failure and Moscow continues to retrench its policies of engaging the West in favor of refurbishing its military and renewing its alliances with corrupt authoritarian regimes.
At the same time, Seoul has been forced to navigate through this delicate geopolitical environment by continued reliance on its US alliance.
When looking at the Senkaku dispute that Japan has with China, it is vital to understand the “strengthened hand” that China now believes that it possesses.
China has indeed reemerged as the dominant strategic power among states in Northeast Asia. Beijing’s primacy in the region has only been challenged thus far by the United States.
Historically, the Japanese have relied on their security alliance with the United States – a partnership which will continue for the foreseeable future.
This relationship however should not induce Japan to have a myopic vision of its geopolitical interests. As China continues to emerge, Japan will need to seek new strategic relationships in the region to balance the notion of a Sino-centric continent.
Through strategic patience and creative statesmanship, Tokyo can tilt this game to its benefit. However, it must first defuse the looming crisis with China over the Senkaku islands through strong bilateral diplomacy that does not rely on US hard power assurances.
This will involve brave decisions by Japanese leaders to resist an excessive response to Chinese provocations. It may be tempting to acquiesce to nationalists in Japan and confront Beijing but this will lead to a strategic nadir between the two and hold the global economy hostage as well. Cooler heads should prevail.
forbes.com
No comments:
Post a Comment