SINGAPORE: Asia's economic growth will get worse before it gets better, with China and India seen expanding this year at their slowest pace since the tail-end of the global financial crisis in 2009, prompting central banks to remain accommodative, a Reuters poll showed on Thursday.
Surveys of more than 250 economists across Asia, excluding Japan, found significant downgrades to growth estimates when compared with the previous poll conducted in October.
But economists also thought Asia's policymakers would step in to stave off any sharp declines, with interest rate cuts expected in 2012 in countries including India, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
"We remain relatively optimistic that Asia will avoid a major slump this year," said Frederic Neumann, an Asia economist with HSBC, based in Hong Kong. "The first quarter is undoutedly going to be challenging."
Analysts have steadily chipped away at their 2012 growth estimates for China over the last five quarterly polls dating back to January 2011.
The consensus view showed China's growth slipping to 8.4 per cent in 2012, which would be the slowest growth in a decade.
Out of 34 economists polled on China, five thought growth would dip below 8 per cent this year, a level once deemed unthinkable . In the previous poll conducted three months ago, not a single economist predicted China would breach the 8 per cent mark.
While Asia is clearly not immune to the global economic slowdown and financial market turmoil, the consensus view indicated that the current slowdown might be short-lived and the region will recover towards the end of the year.
"The worst seems to have passed and this looks like a mid-cycle slowdown," said Wai Ho Leong, senior regional economist at Barclays Capital. "This is a moderation rather than a slump."
Asia's fate is closely tied to China's because it has become the top export destination for many of its neighbours, so a sharper slowdown there would have far-reaching repercussions.
indiatimes.com
Surveys of more than 250 economists across Asia, excluding Japan, found significant downgrades to growth estimates when compared with the previous poll conducted in October.
But economists also thought Asia's policymakers would step in to stave off any sharp declines, with interest rate cuts expected in 2012 in countries including India, Australia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam.
"We remain relatively optimistic that Asia will avoid a major slump this year," said Frederic Neumann, an Asia economist with HSBC, based in Hong Kong. "The first quarter is undoutedly going to be challenging."
Analysts have steadily chipped away at their 2012 growth estimates for China over the last five quarterly polls dating back to January 2011.
The consensus view showed China's growth slipping to 8.4 per cent in 2012, which would be the slowest growth in a decade.
Out of 34 economists polled on China, five thought growth would dip below 8 per cent this year, a level once deemed unthinkable . In the previous poll conducted three months ago, not a single economist predicted China would breach the 8 per cent mark.
While Asia is clearly not immune to the global economic slowdown and financial market turmoil, the consensus view indicated that the current slowdown might be short-lived and the region will recover towards the end of the year.
"The worst seems to have passed and this looks like a mid-cycle slowdown," said Wai Ho Leong, senior regional economist at Barclays Capital. "This is a moderation rather than a slump."
Asia's fate is closely tied to China's because it has become the top export destination for many of its neighbours, so a sharper slowdown there would have far-reaching repercussions.
indiatimes.com
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