BEIJING—China's economic growth slowed in the third quarter but remained at a relatively healthy pace, adding to evidence that the Chinese economy is headed for a soft landing.
Economists are now divided on whether a loosening of Beijing's economic policies is imminent.
China's third-quarter gross domestic product was up 9.1% from a year earlier, slowing from 9.5% growth in the second quarter and 9.7% growth in the first, China's National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday. Growth fell short of the median 9.2% forecast of 14 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.
Standard Chartered economist Li Wei said the government could start to signal that it will loosen its policy stance as soon as next month. Others disagreed, with HSBC economist Ma Xiaoping saying that Beijing will likely keep policy on hold for the remainder of the year.
While Ms. Ma acknowledged that weakness in external markets like Europe will weigh on exports, she noted that China is becoming less dependent on foreign trade for growth.
That was clearly visible in the data: Over the first three quarters, net exports actually reduced the economic growth rate by 0.1 percentage point, National Bureau of Statistics Shen Laiyun said on the sidelines of a press briefing.
"So far this year, especially in the third quarter, growth in China's imports of goods and services has exceeded export growth," he explained. "This shows that the contribution to the global recovery from China's economy is growing."
China's stock markets reacted negatively to the data. The Shanghai Composite index extended losses after the data were issued, and ended down 2.3% at 2383.49.
"If the GDP growth reading was 9.2% or 9.3%, the market may think it's acceptable, but 9.1% looks worrisome, especially compared to the second quarter's 9.5%," said Qian Qimin, an analyst at brokerage Shenyin Wanguo.
Meanwhile, the property market—a key factor in the outlook for the Chinese economy—showed signs of continued cooling as prices remained flat. Average housing prices across the nation were up just 0.01% in September from August, according to Dow Jones calculations based on data released Tuesday.
Government policies intended to tamp down housing prices are finally starting to take effect, analysts said.
"Cooling red-hot housing prices is just like putting out a wildfire," said Wang Haibin, researcher director at Shenzhen World Union Properties Consultancy Co. "Now we can say the fire won't spread further, but it will still take some time before it's extinguished."
Other data released Tuesday showed that industrial output growth accelerated unexpectedly in September. Output was up 13.8% from a year earlier, exceeding both August's 13.5% and the 13.3% expected by economists.
For the January-September period, China's fixed-asset investment in non-rural areas, a measure of construction activity, was up 24.9% from a year earlier. That was off slightly from the 25% growth rate of January-August, but above economists' 24.7% forecast.
Source: http://online.wsj.com
Economists are now divided on whether a loosening of Beijing's economic policies is imminent.
China's third-quarter gross domestic product was up 9.1% from a year earlier, slowing from 9.5% growth in the second quarter and 9.7% growth in the first, China's National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday. Growth fell short of the median 9.2% forecast of 14 economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.
Standard Chartered economist Li Wei said the government could start to signal that it will loosen its policy stance as soon as next month. Others disagreed, with HSBC economist Ma Xiaoping saying that Beijing will likely keep policy on hold for the remainder of the year.
While Ms. Ma acknowledged that weakness in external markets like Europe will weigh on exports, she noted that China is becoming less dependent on foreign trade for growth.
That was clearly visible in the data: Over the first three quarters, net exports actually reduced the economic growth rate by 0.1 percentage point, National Bureau of Statistics Shen Laiyun said on the sidelines of a press briefing.
"So far this year, especially in the third quarter, growth in China's imports of goods and services has exceeded export growth," he explained. "This shows that the contribution to the global recovery from China's economy is growing."
China's stock markets reacted negatively to the data. The Shanghai Composite index extended losses after the data were issued, and ended down 2.3% at 2383.49.
"If the GDP growth reading was 9.2% or 9.3%, the market may think it's acceptable, but 9.1% looks worrisome, especially compared to the second quarter's 9.5%," said Qian Qimin, an analyst at brokerage Shenyin Wanguo.
Meanwhile, the property market—a key factor in the outlook for the Chinese economy—showed signs of continued cooling as prices remained flat. Average housing prices across the nation were up just 0.01% in September from August, according to Dow Jones calculations based on data released Tuesday.
Government policies intended to tamp down housing prices are finally starting to take effect, analysts said.
"Cooling red-hot housing prices is just like putting out a wildfire," said Wang Haibin, researcher director at Shenzhen World Union Properties Consultancy Co. "Now we can say the fire won't spread further, but it will still take some time before it's extinguished."
Other data released Tuesday showed that industrial output growth accelerated unexpectedly in September. Output was up 13.8% from a year earlier, exceeding both August's 13.5% and the 13.3% expected by economists.
For the January-September period, China's fixed-asset investment in non-rural areas, a measure of construction activity, was up 24.9% from a year earlier. That was off slightly from the 25% growth rate of January-August, but above economists' 24.7% forecast.
Source: http://online.wsj.com
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