India’s total GDP in dollar terms isn’t seen expanding by much over the next 8 years. According to a report by Dun & Bradstreet, India’s GDP will top $5 trillion by 2020. But that’s the same forecast they gave in their India 2020 report last August.
Moreover, India’s GDP in dollars is around $4.5 trillion now. So a country as large as India to tack on just another half a billion is quite small, unless you’re counting on continued rupee weakness.
“We expect the current phase of subdued growth to continue till 2015 before the economy moves into a high growth phase,” Dun & Bradstreet analysts wrote in their second India 2020 report released on Friday.
According to them, India investment activity is expected to accelerate, which will help the Indian economy grow. Share of investment to GDP is expected to increase to 40.7 percent of GDP by 2020 from 36.6 percent in 2010.
Infrastructure spend will be the main engine for economic growth during the current decade. Share of discretionary spending is likely to rise to 70 percent of the private final consumption expenditure by 2020, compared to 60.0 percent in 2011.
Dr. Arun Singh, senior economist at Dun & Bradstreet India said in a statement that India “Subdued growth in the domestic economy owing to the culmination of domestic and global factors is likely to continue till 2015, after which we expect the Indian economy to embark on a high growth phase.”
India’s economy grew under 6 percent in the first quarter, leading one analyst at HSBC to refer to it as a “gasping elephant”.
India’s political landscape is also somewhat messy, with allegations of corruption and political leaders falling here and there like a house of cards. But, India is not alone when it comes to slow growth.
On Friday, U.S. economic growth slowed in the second quarter to 1.5 percent as consumers spent at their slowest pace in a year.The ailing economy could cost President Barack Obama a second term in the White House.
The expansion following the 2008-09 financial crisis is the slowest since the 1980-81 period and the recession itself was the deepest in the post-war period.Six of the 17 countries in the euro are in recession. Moody’s has a negative outlook out on Germany. Germany!
The U.S. economy is slowing down again, as second quarter data confirmed. The big emerging markets aren’t doing much better. China’s second quarter came in below estimates, at just 7.6 percent.
And Brazil is struggling to post quarterly growth of half a percent. It will be lucky to grow 2 percent this year, less than the U.S.
The International Monetary Fund recently reduced its forecast for world growth this year to 3.5 percent, the slowest since a 0.6 percent drop in 2009.
Some economists predict the global economy will grow a full percentage point less.Nevertheless, on Friday, India shares maintained their lead over the MSCI Emerging Markets index.
As measured by the Wisdom Tree India (EPI) exchange traded fund, India’s large cap stocks are up 5.32 percent year to date while the MSCI EM is up 1.34 percent.
forbes.com
Moreover, India’s GDP in dollars is around $4.5 trillion now. So a country as large as India to tack on just another half a billion is quite small, unless you’re counting on continued rupee weakness.
“We expect the current phase of subdued growth to continue till 2015 before the economy moves into a high growth phase,” Dun & Bradstreet analysts wrote in their second India 2020 report released on Friday.
According to them, India investment activity is expected to accelerate, which will help the Indian economy grow. Share of investment to GDP is expected to increase to 40.7 percent of GDP by 2020 from 36.6 percent in 2010.
Infrastructure spend will be the main engine for economic growth during the current decade. Share of discretionary spending is likely to rise to 70 percent of the private final consumption expenditure by 2020, compared to 60.0 percent in 2011.
Dr. Arun Singh, senior economist at Dun & Bradstreet India said in a statement that India “Subdued growth in the domestic economy owing to the culmination of domestic and global factors is likely to continue till 2015, after which we expect the Indian economy to embark on a high growth phase.”
India’s economy grew under 6 percent in the first quarter, leading one analyst at HSBC to refer to it as a “gasping elephant”.
India’s political landscape is also somewhat messy, with allegations of corruption and political leaders falling here and there like a house of cards. But, India is not alone when it comes to slow growth.
On Friday, U.S. economic growth slowed in the second quarter to 1.5 percent as consumers spent at their slowest pace in a year.The ailing economy could cost President Barack Obama a second term in the White House.
The expansion following the 2008-09 financial crisis is the slowest since the 1980-81 period and the recession itself was the deepest in the post-war period.Six of the 17 countries in the euro are in recession. Moody’s has a negative outlook out on Germany. Germany!
The U.S. economy is slowing down again, as second quarter data confirmed. The big emerging markets aren’t doing much better. China’s second quarter came in below estimates, at just 7.6 percent.
And Brazil is struggling to post quarterly growth of half a percent. It will be lucky to grow 2 percent this year, less than the U.S.
The International Monetary Fund recently reduced its forecast for world growth this year to 3.5 percent, the slowest since a 0.6 percent drop in 2009.
Some economists predict the global economy will grow a full percentage point less.Nevertheless, on Friday, India shares maintained their lead over the MSCI Emerging Markets index.
As measured by the Wisdom Tree India (EPI) exchange traded fund, India’s large cap stocks are up 5.32 percent year to date while the MSCI EM is up 1.34 percent.
forbes.com
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