Monday, January 31, 2011

China growth positive for Japan: Kan

BEIJING - JAPANESE Prime Minister Naoto Kan's statement 'welcoming' China overtaking his nation as the world's second-largest economy points to a positive and strong change in future China-Japan relations, according to analysts.

Mr Kan made the comment at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, which he visited on Saturday to address the VIP gathering. In his speech, Mr Kan said 'the world faces major changes that can be likened to a tectonic shift both in the national security and economic fields', and Asia is 'the centre of major tectonic changes'.

Against this background, he said, the Japan-US alliance 'is becoming even more important' and should continue to play a key role in the Asia-Pacific region.

'For Japan, its relationship with China, which is expanding its influence in Asia as it achieves remarkable economic growth, is extremely important,' Mr Kan added.

'Both Japan and China have an important responsibility to bear in the international community, and will need to enhance cooperation in a wide array of fields such as the economy, regional stability and the global environment,' he said.

After the speech, when asked if he was worried about Japan being overtaken by China as the world's second-largest economy last summer, Mr Kan said it was 'something that is welcoming'. 'China's growth will have a positive impact on Japan, both economically and socially,' said Mr Kan.

Source: http://www.straitstimes.com

Sunday, January 30, 2011

China and India in The Growth of Economy

The developed economies look with admiration and the rapid growth of Asian giants China and India, which depend for their long-term recovery. Economic experts and politicians have discussed the future of the Asian giants in the World Economic Forum in Davos, which concludes tomorrow. In 2020 China will overtake U.S. as world’s largest economy, according to Martin Jacques, who works at the Asia Research Centre at the London School of Economics and author of “When China rules the world.”

For his part, Michael Spencer, an expert on Asia and the Pacific at Deutsche Bank predicts that China will grow by 8 or 9% over the next decade, with inflation at 3 or 3.5 percent. Spencer believes that China will need about 40 years to reach the living standards of the United States and Europe. In this sense, Professor of Economics at Columbia University Xavier Salas-i-Martin said “I doubt that China will be economic leader because they are unable to innovate.”

“China reminds me of what happened to Japan and never materialized, because economic growth is driven by innovation and China back, but has not invented anything. Japan has never had an innovative system like Silicon Valley,” said Salas-i -Martin. He added that “China is still poor and (still) has to grow much and much copied” ·

“I bet on India, a system based on the creativity of the people. Silicon Valley is full of Indians,” said Salas-i-Martin.

China, which has a population of one thousand 334 million people and a per capita income of three thousand 678 U.S. dollars, is currently experiencing a rapid industrialization and urbanization. United States has a population of 307.4 million people and a per capita income of $ 46,381 (both figures in 2009). India has a population of one thousand 200 million people and a per capita income of $ 31 billion. In the coming years China will face a demographic change that will trigger a slowdown in growth in the workforce and will push to maintain a high growth rate, according to the chief China economist at UBS, Wang Tao.

Source: http://www.coffetoday.com

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Japanese exports surge 13 per cent

Japanese exports accelerated for the second month in December, adding to the optimism in Davos about the recovery in the global economy.

Shipments from Asia’s second-largest economy rose 13 per cent last month, compared to a year earlier, to Y6,112bn ($73.6bn), faster than November’s 9.1 per cent rise, according to statistics from the Ministry of Finance released on Thursday. Exports to the US were particularly strong, gaining 16.5 per cent.

Imports also grew but at a slower pace than in November. As a result, the trade surplus expanded 34.1 per cent to Y727.7bn, the fastest since September and more than economists had estimated.

The recent acceleration ties in with the moderate confidence in the global recovery being expressed at the World Economic Forum in Davos, and the International Monetary Fund’s forecast that the global economy will grow at a pre-crisis rate over the next couple of years.

It also helps to fuel confidence that the Japanese economy can continue to expand in spite of the end of domestic stimulus measures.

Japan’s stronger exports to the US also reflect comments by Zhu Min, a special adviser to the IMF, who on Wednesday described a “three-speed” recovery. He said that while emerging economies would continue to expand much faster than developed countries, the US would benefit from ongoing stimulus, while other advanced economies would grow slowly as they shift to austerity measures.

Although the yen remains close to 15-year highs at Y82.13, the Japanese currency has recently been less volatile and some economists, such as Yuriko Tanaka at Goldman Sachs, are not expecting the yen to climb much higher, which should help exports.

“As the yen appreciation trend seems to have run out of gas, we think exports should sustain growth on the strength of the US economy,” said Ms Tanaka.

The yen’s sharp climb against the US dollar during 2010 had been weighing on exports and business confidence. In September, the strength of the yen forced the finance ministry to intervene in the currency markets for the first time in more than six years.

On a seasonally-adjusted basis, export volumes grew 8.5 per cent in December, close to levels not seen since the financial crisis, according to estimates from Credit Suisse. The finance ministry does not provide data for volumes, which are a better guide to activity in the Japanese economy and demand from overseas.

The Bank of Japan earlier this week raised its real gross domestic product growth forecast for the year ending in March to 3.3 per cent from its October forecast of 2.1 per cent.

“Japan’s economy is expected to gradually overcome the deceleration in the pace of improvement and return to a moderate recovery path as the growth rate of the global economy is likely to start increasing again led by emerging and commodity-exporting economies,” the BoJ said.

Markets welcomed the trade figures and the Nikkei 225 gained 0.8 per cent to 10,482.77 in early afternoon trading.

Source: http://www.ft.com

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

South Korea economic growth slows in Q4

South Korea‘s economy, which is Asia’s fourth-largest, saw growth slow to 0.5% in the October to December period.

Last year, the economy expanded strongly – boosted by exports and increasing consumption and facilities investment.

However, retail spending and manufacturing and construction slowed, which was attributed to the slowdown.

The Bank of Korea were optimistic about the figures, however, and said growth will pick up in the current quarter.

On an annual basis, meanwhile, the economy grew by 6.1% – the fastest pace since 2002, said the Bank.

The Bank’s head of economic statistics, Jung Youg-Taek, said: “We can say the country has now got out of the global financial crisis. The domestic economy will continue to expand every quarter this year, although there could be some ups and downs.”

Analysts expect the rate of economic growth to accelerate in the current quarter due to rising exports and local demand, which, in turn, will drive inflation expectations higher.

Earlier this month, the central bank lifted interest rates to 2.75%, in an attempt to dampen rising prices.

In related news, South Korea currently has the lowest unemployment rate in the 33-member OECD countries.

Source: http://www.financemarkets.co.uk

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

South Korean Economy Probably Expanded Last Quarter as Inflation Quickened

South Korea’s economic growth likely moderated in the fourth quarter as quickening inflation added pressure on the central bank to extend interest-rate increases.

Gross domestic product rose 0.4 percent in the three months through December from the third quarter, when it gained 0.7 percent, according to the median of 12 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. The data are released at 8 a.m. in Seoul tomorrow.

President Lee Myung Bak has declared “war” on inflation, with the government announcing price controls and the central bank this month raising borrowing costs for the third time since the global financial crisis. The slowdown in the fourth quarter led by cooling investment will likely be temporary, analysts at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. said yesterday.

“Policy makers are focusing more on inflation now,” said Lee Sang Jae, an economist at Hyundai Securities Co. in Seoul. “The Bank of Korea is expected to keep normalizing rates as the economy will likely continue to post solid growth, supported by exports.”

The won rose 0.3 percent to 1,118.25 per dollar at the 3 p.m. close in Seoul, while the Kospi share index gained 0.2 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency has risen 2.9 percent in the past 12 months, the third-weakest advance in Asia, helping to support trade gains in the export- led economy.

The recovery in the U.S. economy may lead the central bank to increase its forecast for South Korean growth this year from the current estimate of 4.5 percent, Bank of Korea Governor Kim Choong Soo said on Jan. 19.

Annual Growth

Asia’s fourth-largest economy expanded 4.6 percent last quarter from a year earlier, according to the median estimate of 15 economists in another Bloomberg News survey. GDP increased at an annual rate of 4.4 percent in the three months through September.

Inflation will likely hover around 3.5 percent for an “extended period” driven by economic growth and rising raw material costs, Kim also said. The Bank of Korea targets consumer-price growth of 2 percent to 4 percent from 2010 through 2012.

The monetary authority raised the benchmark interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point this month to 2.75 percent, adding to similar moves in July and November from a record low. Borrowing costs have remained below inflation for a record 14 straight months, skewing incentives toward spending.

Inflation Threat

“We should revise our inflation forecast upwards, given our economic growth, the high level of inflation pressures in China and rising raw material costs,” one unnamed member of the Bank of Korea board said in minutes of the December interest-rate policy meeting released today. “Inflation may threaten our target ceiling, so we should act with a preemptive monetary policy.”

Some Asian counterparts have raised rates more aggressively. Thailand increased borrowing costs for the fourth time in seven months in January, while India boosted its benchmark rate to a two-year high today.

“The policy rate is unlikely to rise above 3.5 percent at the end of this year, as faster and larger increases would be a drag on domestic demand and slow economic growth, which the government expects to be 5 percent in 2011,” said Oh Suk Tae, an economist at SC First Bank Korea Ltd. in Seoul.

Exports rose for a 14th consecutive month in December. Overseas shipments are equivalent to about half the economy and boosted earnings last year at companies including Samsung Electronics Co., Asia’s biggest maker of semiconductors, flat screens and mobile phones.

Capital Inflows

South Korea has joined emerging markets from Thailand to Brazil in striving to counter foreign capital inflows and pare currency gains. The nation has revived taxes on overseas investors in domestic government bonds and tightened scrutiny of trading in foreign-currency derivatives.

Officials may tolerate higher gains in the won to offset rising prices for imported goods such as crude oil and food grains, SC First Bank’s Oh said.

The government on Jan. 13 announced plans to reduce import tariffs on some food items and freeze the cost of utilities, including electricity and gas. The administration also said it will ask steelmakers to refrain from raising prices.

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com

Monday, January 24, 2011

Asian shoppers thirst for luxury

Something quite extraordinary is happening across Asia.

In the big cities all across the continent, people are shopping as though their lives depended on it, day after day.

In Singapore and Hong Kong, it's been the main leisure pursuit for years.

But now, rather suddenly, the cult of luxury shopping is spreading - and China is emerging as what will soon be the biggest luxury market in the whole world.

Eclipsed

So many times in the past few decades, the insatiable appetite of the Americans for imported consumer goods has helped the world out of recession or helped to avoid it.

But if China's emerging class of consumers put their mind to it - up to 800 million of them, compared with roughly 200 million in the USA - their buying power will shape the needs and demands of the rest of the world.

In 2010 China became the biggest marketplace in the world for cars. It was already the largest market for mobile phones. The world's second largest economy, Japan, has been deposed - replaced (of course) by China.

And the place that has hitherto been the great consuming nation - the USA - is soon going to be eclipsed. Asians seem to have an even hungrier appetite for luxuries: people who only 20 years ago hardly knew what bling was.
Status symbols

Retail expert Paul Husband has been based in Hong Kong for 25 years and he knows the scale of what's happening in the East.

And with his Louis Vuitton bag, Cartier watch and Ferragamo shoes, he knows a thing or two about luxury too.

"It began really in the very late 80s and early 90s," he says, when the first luxury brands like Dunhill began to enter China.

These pioneers tended to base themselves in and around western hotels - although their customers were not always westerners.

"It was opening the cult of luxury. At that time of course, you would see them in hotels and not on the street because the people with money - well, quite frankly one might have questioned where the money had come from. They had to be very discreet. Hence the luxury stores also had to be fairly invisible to the street. One didn't want to be seen going in."

But thirty years later attitudes are different. China has a more relaxed attitude toward wealth and many Chinese have successfully followed Deng Xiaoping's maxim that "to be rich is glorious".

Rags to riches

The workshop of Chinese fashion designer Zhang Zhifeng in the posh centre of Beijing is a vivid example of the opportunities open to an entrepreneur in a China moving quickly from communist puritanism to Western-style consumerism.

The ambitious but approachable designer, who heads up the label Tiger NE, is one of the people in China trying to create expensive luxury brands that speak directly to this booming market of people with newly acquired wealth.

His own story is a peculiarly Chinese take on the rags to riches tale.

"At the time of the cultural revolution, my dad was labelled as a capitalist and thrown into a gulag-style labour farm," says Mr Zhang.

"Our family was dirt poor. My mum had to learn tailoring just to make a living, to feed the family."

Mr Zhang learned the craft too, and after graduating from high school he opened his own small shop - just him and a sewing machine.

"This was in 1982. This was still the early days of China's reform and opening up."

When the government began to allow cross-border bartering, Mr Zhang's position on the Sino-Russian border meant that he was able to take advantage of one of the first market liberalisations.

"Because of the barter trade, my business started to take off," he says. "Initially it was just a one man show, and then family and friends joined in to help as more and more business came my way. Soon, in 1985, my shop hired more than 300 employees."

"I was one of the first Chinese who had the opportunity to go abroad," says Mr Zhang, who visited his trading partners in the former Soviet Union, and, eventually, Europe and America.
'All we had was quantity'

"The more I saw, the more I realised what the differences were between the Chinese and Western clothing industries. For example, the cost of making a shirt in China was about 20 Yuan and the shirt retailed for about 30. But in the States and Europe, a shirt can often fetch anywhere from US $30 to about $100."

In the West, the brand and the design quality had all been factored into the price, he realised, "but all we had in China was quantity. That was when I decided to improve and move into the high end fashion business."

NE Tiger was registered as a brand in 1992. At the time, a Chinese-owned and run luxury brand was highly unusual - and remains so today according to Zhang Zhifeng.

"In Beijing and Shanghai, our shops are still mainly surrounded by Western brand shops," he says.

"The only Chinese high end brand is mine. We are soon to launch a flagship store in Shanghai central shopping district where my new neighbours will be the likes of Louis Vuitton."
Expanding

This puts Mr Zhang is in a good position to take advantage of Asia's luxury boom, according to Paul Husbands.

"There's a view that by 2014/15, China will be the largest luxury goods market in the world, meaning that consumption in China and consumption offshore by mainland Chinese would outperform Japan, America and Europe," says the retail expert.

"It's the one large market in the world where we cannot see really an end to the market."

The rise in demand for luxury goods is not just confined to China - it is happening across Asia.

For the series Start-up Stories, I have been speaking to entrepreneurs across the continent, some of whom are looking for a slice of this expanding market.

I've heard from Ho Kwon Ping, whose luxury resort chain Banyan Tree is now exporting an Asian take on luxury to the rest of the world. And I've spoken to watch retailer Jannie Tay and chocolatier Lyn Lee, whose businesses started in Singapore but now trades across Asia.

There are bound to be many more of these stories to come. The arrival of a mass of Asian consumers is quite extraordinary. It's potentially much more significant for the global economy than the 30 year emergence of China as the world's great manufacturing centre.

As we're about to see, when people start to become consumers, what they want is a little bit of luxury.

Source: http://www.bbc.co.uk

Friday, January 21, 2011

Global Security Asia 2011 aims at protecting people, property and infrastructure

Asia-Pacific's largest and most comprehensive homeland security and counter-terrorism conference and exhibition, Global Security Asia (GSA) 2011, will be held at the Marina Bay Sands Convention Centre, Singapore from 15th to 17th March 2011. The fourth in the Series, the Conference theme, "Prevention and Protection - Safeguarding People, Property and Infrastructure", is particularly pertinent with the increasing focus especially in Asia on security with a view to preserving the economic stability and success of the region.

"How to maintain economic growth, and ensure the security of a nation's citizens, property and infrastructure will be a major topic of the GSA 2011 Conference" explained Andrew Marriott, Managing Director, GSA Exhibitions Pte Ltd.

According to research, global government current expenditure on homeland security exceeded USD 178 billion. Furthermore, the forecast expenditure for the period 2010 - 2020 is USD2.7 trillion. Research also suggests that in this period the Asia Pacific region will contribute circa 21% to the global homeland security expenditure.

Leading minds to discuss developments

GSA 2011 will be bringing together cutting edge research and state-of-the-art technology and overviews from experts in their chosen fields including Co-chairs of the Conference, Professor Alan Hatcher, chief executive officer (CEO) and Principal of The International School for Security and Explosives Education (ISSEE); Professor Andrew Tan, Professor of Social Sciences and International Studies at the University of New South Wales, Australia; Pakistan terrorism expert and author Khuram Iqbal and Caroline O'Hare, Detective Inspector and Commander of the New South Wales Police Force, Australia.

Opening the Conference with a Keynote Address will be Adam Ingram, former Member of the UK Parliament and former Minister of State for the Armed Forces and a veteran of the Northern Ireland conflict. He will be discussing the multi-dimensional impact and the implications of Homeland Security threats to a nation's economy drawing from his experience as a Minister in the UK Government and his subsequent work as an expert on global threats.

In addition, other experts including Mike Coldrick, an experienced bomb technician and intelligence officer in the field of counter-terrorism for 30 years will be examining the history of explosive devices and current developments, especially Improvised Explosive Devices (IED) and how relevant Agencies need to recognise and be proactive to these potential dangers.

Khuram Iqbal, an author and research fellow at the PAK Institute of Peace Studies (PIPS), will discuss the impact of religious fanaticism and militancy of the Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP), a militant organization based in Pakistan. His assertion that the TTP is growing in strength and numbers through aggressive propaganda against the West and as a result is now no longer just a Pakistani problem but a global threat which will be particularly relevant to industry professionals in Southeast Asia.

Caroline O'Hare, Detective Inspector and Commander of the New South Wales Police Force will discuss the role of police in countering terrorism. She will cover how the police force in smaller nations such as Singapore can maximise their resources to meet the ever increasing challenges.

Global brands and endorsement at GSA 2011

Exhibitors participating at GSA 2011 include DHS Systems International, AM General, Motorola, Glock, General Dynamics, TJ Systems, Thales and Cobham Surveillance. These industry leaders will showcase the latest technological solutions in several areas of homeland security, including Security Screening, Biometrics, Land, Air and Sea Security, Internet and Computer Security, Intelligence and Training Methods, Chemical, Biological, Radiological, and Nuclear (CBRN) Threats, Surveillance and Security Risk Management. GSA 2011 is officially endorsed by the United States Department of Commerce and the US Department of Homeland Security, UK's Aerospace, Defence and Security (ADS) Group, the UK Trade Investment (UKTI) Defence & Security Organisation, and the Australian Trade Commission (Austrade).

The GSA Series has an established an enviable reputation as being the leading Homeland Security event in the Asia Pacific region. It is estimated that this year's Event in March will see more than 6,500 visitors including over 100 VIP delegates who will be attending the Show. These Government delegations comprising of Homeland Security experts will be coming from Malaysia, India, Philippines, Indonesia and Thailand. There will be National Pavilions from the US, UK, Australia and Singapore together with Exhibitors from Israel, Czech Republic, China, France, Germany and Switzerland.

Andrew Marriott believes the growth of the Global Security Series is due to the increasing number of threats in the Asia Pacific region. As a result this requires Governments to increase their Homeland Security expenditure to ensure their security with emphasis on biometrics, profiling, cyber-terrorism and border security. However, to be successful in meeting these threats requires international cooperation and coordination at all levels of Government and the private sector.

Source: http://www.sourcesecurity.com